I. Chemical Market Overview: 71.56% Products Fall, Industry Prosperity Under Pressure
According to SCI99 monitoring data for May 22-June 29, 2026, the chemical market shows a 'general decline' pattern:
| Category | Top Gainers (Top 3) | Top Losers (Top 3) |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Chemicals | Industrial Naphthalene (+8.78%), Coal Tar (+6.39%) | Butanone (-13.83%), Acetone (-9.2%) |
| Inorganic Chemicals | Soda Ash (+2.1%), Caustic Soda (+1.5%) | Liquid Chlorine (-33.33%), Ammonium Sulfate (-17.21%) |
| Plastics/Polymers | PP Powder (+1.2%), LDPE (+0.8%) | PVC Paste Resin (-3.5%), EPS (-2.1%) |
Core Conclusion: The chemical market is highly diverged, coal chemical industry chain (industrial naphthalene, coal tar) surged due to sudden maintenance on the supply side, while chlor-alkali/polyurethane industry chain continued to decline due to weak demand. The plastic industry chain is in the 'middle zone' - supported by cost side (crude oil, coal), but suppressed by the off-season demand, showing resistante to decline but lack of momentum for increase.
II. The 'Anti-decline Code' of the Plastic Industry Chain: Low Supply + Cost Support
Why can the plastic industry chain (PP/PE/PVC) maintain relative strength against the backdrop of general chemical decline? The core lies in the dual moat of low supply + cost support:
1. Supply Side: Low Operating Rate, Tight Supply in Some Regions
According to SCI99 data on June 2, the PP industry operating rate remains low, and supply in some regions (such as East China and South China) is tight. This means that even if demand is not strong, self-restraint on the supply side can maintain price resilience. In contrast, the PVC industry, due to continuously weak real estate demand and high inventory pressure, performs relatively weakly.
2. Cost Side: Dual Drive of Crude Oil and Coal
In China's polyolefin capacity structure, oil-based routes account for about 60%, and coal-based routes account for about 30%. Currently, crude oil prices have surged by 5%, directly driving up the cost of oil-based polyolefins; while coal prices are showing stabilization and rebound as the summer electricity peak approaches, and the cost support for coal-based polyolefins is strengthening. Under dual cost support, polyolefin prices are 'prone to rise but resistante to fall.'
3. Demand Side: Policy Bottoming Effect Still Exists
Although June is the traditional off-season, the pull effect of the 'trade-in' policy on home appliance and automotive consumption continues. Data shows that from January to May 2026, China's home appliance retail sales increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and automobile sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year, which provides rigid support for demand for plastic raw materials such as ABS, PP, and PE.
III. Structural Opportunities: Which Plastic Varieties Are Worth Attention?
Against the backdrop of high divergence in the chemical market, the internal plastic industry chain also shows structural opportunities. Based on the degree of supply-demand mismatch, I have selected the following varieties worth attention:
① PP Raffia: Low Supply + Demand Resilience, Price Midpoint Shifts Upward
As mentioned earlier, the PP supply side has low operating rates, while demand is supported by policies. It is expected that the price midpoint will shift upward by 200-300 yuan/ton in June. It is recommended to focus on market price trends in East China and South China regions, where supply is tight and price increase elasticity is greater.
② LLDPE (7042): Stable Demand for Packaging Film, Smooth Cost Transmission
The main downstream of LLDPE is packaging film (accounting for about 55%), and demand for packaging film is highly correlated with e-commerce logistics and food & beverage, with relatively small seasonal fluctuations. With the current surge in crude oil, cost transmission for LLDPE is relatively smooth, and it is expected that the price midpoint will shift upward by 150-250 yuan/ton in June.
③ PVC (Calcium Carbide Method): Weak Real Estate Demand, but Exports Exceed Expectations
PVC is the weakest variety in the plastic industry chain, due to continuously weak real estate demand and high social inventory. However, from January to May 2026, PVC exports increased by 23.5% year-on-year, mainly flowing to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which offsets the weak domestic demand to some extent. It is expected that PVC prices will maintain weak fluctuation in June, but the downside space is limited.
IV. Risk Warnings and Operational Recommendations
Risk Warnings:
① Crude Oil Price Volatility Risk: If US-Iran negotiations reconcile beyond expectations, crude oil may give back gains, and polyolefin cost support will weaken.
② Demand Falling Short of Expectations Risk: June-July is the traditional off-season. If the effect of the 'trade-in' policy marginaly declines, plastic demand may decline beyond expectations.
③ Import Impact Risk: Low-priced polyolefin supplies from the Middle East and Southeast Asia may impact the domestic market, suppressing price increase space.
Operational Recommendations:
① Traders: Can appropriately establish long positions in PP/LLDPE, but need to control positions and set stop-losses.
② Downstream Product Enterprises: Can lock in PP/LLDPE raw material costs at low prices to avoid future price increase risks.
③ Investors: Pay attention to coal chemical enterprises (such as Baofeng Energy, China Coal Energy), whose cost advantages will become more pronounced against the backdrop of the crude oil surge.
